Rooftop in China

China’s hobbelige “nieuwe normaal”

SHANGHAI – De overstap van China van een op de export gebaseerd groeimodel naar een model dat gegrondvest is op de binnenlandse dienstensector en de consumptie van de huishoudens, is met veel meer schokken gepaard gegaan dan sommigen hadden verwacht. De aandelenmarkten en de wisselkoersen hebben grote schommelingen vertoond, waardoor zorgen zijn ontstaan over de economische stabiliteit van het land. Toch doet de Chinese economie het historisch gezien nog steeds goed, met een jaarlijkse bbp-groei van bijna 7%; sommigen zouden zelfs zeggen heel goed. Maar het succes dat China de afgelopen dertig jaar te beurt is gevallen brengt hoge verwachtingen met zich mee.

Uit dit alles valt een fundamentele les te trekken: “Markten met Chinese karaktertrekken” zijn net zo wisselvallig als markten met Amerikaanse karaktertrekken. Markten leiden onveranderlijk een eigen leven; zij laten zich niet zo makkelijk de wet voorschrijven. Voorzover markten gecontroleerd kunnen worden, moet dat gebeuren door de spelregels op een heldere manier uiteen te zetten.

Alle markten hebben regels en voorschriften nodig. Goede regels kunnen helpen bij de stabilisering van markten. Slecht ontworpen regels, hoe goed de bedoelingen ook mogen zijn die erachter schuilgaan, kunnen het tegenovergestelde effect hebben.

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