Pearl Tower Shanghai sama093/Flickr

La Chine et le fonctionnement des marchés

HONG KONG – Afin d'alléger le fardeau de la dette des entreprises et des gouvernements locaux, la Banque populaire de Chine (BPC) a baissé ses taux d'intérêt pour la troisième fois en 6 mois. Mais le relâchement monétaire auquel elle procède (accompagné de réformes budgétaires et administratives) n'a guère entraîné d'augmentation des demandes de crédit. Par contre il a suscité un bond de la Bourse chinoise. La question se pose de savoir si en fin de compte cette mesure sera une bonne chose.

Il est évident que l'économie chinoise est en phase de transition rapide. Les statistiques officielles indiquent un ralentissement de la croissance réelle dans le secteur manufacturier traditionnel et dans la construction, ce qui traduit une baisse des bénéfices des entreprises, une augmentation du nombre de faillites et de prêts à risque dans les villes et les régions à la traîne. Les mesures visant à combattre la corruption, la surcapacité de production, le surendettement des gouvernements locaux et la pollution freinent les investissements et la consommation et diminuent la probabilité pour la Chine de parvenir au taux de croissance promis par l'Etat.

Du fait des contraintes budgétaires de plus en plus lourdes imposées par le gouvernement central, les dirigeants locaux et les entreprises nationalisées investissent moins et font preuve d'un excès de prudence. A court terme, cette restructuration pourrait conduire à des récessions localisées, malgré les efforts des autorités visant à créer un environnement macroéconomique plus favorable.

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