Buddha figures on wall

Как перестроить Китай

ЛОНДОН – В последние месяцы пессимистические настроения по поводу Китая усугубились, а страх «китайского краха» вызвал несколько шоковых волн на фондовых рынках по всему миру с начала года. Кажется, что практически все открывают короткие позиции на эту страну.

Конечно, есть масса причин для беспокойства. Рост ВВП резко замедлился; долговые коэффициенты корпораций беспрецедентно высоки; валюта слабеет; фондовые рынки стали крайне волатильными; а капитал бежит из страны опасными темпами. Вопрос в том, почему это происходит, и смогут ли китайские власти исправить ситуацию, прежде чем станет слишком поздно.

Существует популярное (и официальное) объяснение, что Китай находится в процессе перехода к «новой нормальности» – более медленным темпам роста ВВП с опорой на внутреннее потребление, а не на экспорт. Как обычно, тут же нашлись экономические исследования, которые подтверждают данную концепцию. Однако подобная интерпретация, хотя она и удобна, может дать лишь фальшивое утешение.

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