Buddha figures on wall

La Chine peut rebondir

LONDRES – Depuis quelques mois, la situation de la Chine devient de plus en plus préoccupante aux yeux des observateurs et des investisseurs, et la crainte d'un krach boursier génère une onde de choc qui ébranle les marchés financiers à travers la planète. Pratiquement tout le monde table semble-t-il sur un effondrement du pays.

Il y a manifestement beaucoup de raisons de s'inquiéter. La croissance du PIB a chuté, le taux d'endettement des entreprises n'a jamais été aussi élevé, la devise baisse, les marchés financiers sont d'une volatilité exceptionnelle et le capital fuit le pays à un rythme alarmant. La question est de savoir pourquoi, et si les autorités chinoises pourront redresser la situation avant qu'il ne soit trop tard.

Le point de vue populaire - et officiel - consiste à dire que l'empire du Milieu est en transition vers une "nouvelle normalité" caractérisée par une moindre croissance du PIB - croissance soutenue par la consommation domestique plutôt que par les exportations. Et comme d'habitude, on a trouvé une poignée d'études économiques pour justifier le concept. Mais cette interprétation, aussi habile soit-elle, n'est pas satisfaisante.

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