Buddha figures on wall

重整中华

发自伦敦——对中国的悲观情绪在最近几个月四处涌动,而对“中国崩溃”的忧虑自今年年初以来已经通过各大股市冲击了全球各国。看似几乎每个人都在做空中国。

人们很显然有足够的理由去忧虑:GDP增长大幅放缓;企业负债率创下历史新高;货币汇率下滑;股票市场极为动荡;同时资本正以惊人的速度流出国门。而问题是为什么发生这种情况,以及中国当局是否能在一切为时已晚之前解决这个问题。

流行——也是官方——的观点认为,中国正在向GDP增长放缓的“新常态”转变,转而由国内消费而非出口来支撑整个经济。和往常一样,有一系列经济研究成果来证明这一概念的正确性。但这种解释,虽然唾手可得,却只能提供虚假的安慰。

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