Chinese digital economy VCG/Getty Images

Новый цифровой дивиденд Китая

ГОНКОНГ – За последние четыре десятилетия Китай из поставщика с низкими зарплатами превратился в одно из трех наиболее важных звеньев в глобальной цепочке создания стоимости наряду с Соединенными Штатами и Германией. Несмотря на растущую обеспокоенность по поводу корпоративного долга Китая, – который сейчас близок к 170% ВВП, – и опасений по поводу возможной ловушки среднего дохода, быстрая цифровизация позволит китайской экономике продолжить продвижение по цепочке создания стоимости.

После своего стратегического «перехода к открытости» почти 40 лет назад Китай предоставил богатый источник дешевой земли и рабочей силы, что позволило ему превратить свою экономику в огромный цех по производству потребительских товаров. Затем, по мере того как уровень дохода в Китае стал приближаться к среднему, он сам стал крупным потребительским рынком.

В 2012 году нынешние лидеры Китая признали, что «демографический дивиденд» страны исчерпал себя: китайская экономика достигла своего «поворотного момента Льюиса», этапа, на котором избыток рабочей силы исчезает и заработная плата начинает расти. В то же время «дивиденд от открытости» также достиг своего пика и начал сталкиваться с протекционистскими барьерами по всему миру.

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