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中国的数字经济革命红利

香港—在过去四十年中,中国从低工资供应商起步,演变为全球价值链中的最重要的三个超级链接环之一——另外两个环是美国和德国。尽管越来越多的人担心中国的企业债务(目前接近GDP的170%)及其摆脱中等收入陷阱的能力,但迅速的数字经济革命将让中国经济继续在价值链中向上攀升。

在近40年前采取了战略性的“开放”政策之后,中国为世界提供了充足的廉价土地和劳动力,这让它实现了在消费品制造业领域的规模经济。随着中国跻身中等收入国家行列,其本身也成了全球主要消费市场之一。

2012年上任的中国新一届领导层认识到中国的“人口红利”已经告罄:中国经济正在接近“刘易斯拐点”,即劳动力供给盈余消失而工资却不断上涨的阶段。而与此同时,“开放红利”也接近尾声,并且面临全球贸易保护主义壁垒的威胁。

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