Traditional rooftop architecture in China

Большой побег из Китая

КЕМБРИДЖ – С начала 2016 года над мировыми рынками висит как дамоклов меч перспектива существенной девальвации китайского юаня. Ни один другой источник политической неопределённости не является столь дестабилизирующим. Мало кто сомневается в том, что рано или поздно в течение ближайшего десятилетия Китай будет вынужден перейти к плавающему валютному курсу юаня. Вопрос в том, сколько драматических событий, вызванных столкновением политических и экономических императивов, произойдет до того, как это случится.

Может показаться странным, что стране, имевшей в 2015 году торговый профицит в размере $600 млрд, приходится беспокоиться по поводу возможной слабости своей валюты. Однако комбинация факторов, в том числе замедление экономического роста и поэтапное ослабление ограничений на инвестиции за пределы страны, вызвала стремительный отток капитала.

Сейчас гражданам Китая разрешено вывозить из страны до $50000 в год. Если хотя бы один из каждых 20 китайских граждан воспользуется этим правом, валютные резервы страны испарятся. Тем временем, богатые китайские компании активно пользуются всеми возможными механизмами вывода денег за рубеж. Есть совершенно легальный способ – выдавать кредиты в юанях, а выплаты по кредиту получать в иностранной валюте.

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