Traditional rooftop architecture in China

La grande fuga dalla Cina

CAMBRIDGE – Da quando il 2016 è iniziato, la prospettiva di una maggiore svalutazione del renminbi cinese pende sui mercati globali come la spada di Damocle. Nessun altra fonte di incertezza politica è stata così destabilizzante. Pochi osservatori dubitano che la Cina dovrà lasciare che il tasso di cambio del renminbi fluttui liberamente nel corso del prossimo decennio. La domanda è quante situazioni drammatiche avranno luogo nel frattempo, dal momento che gli imperativi politici ed economici si scontrano.

Potrebbe sembrare strano che un paese con un surplus commerciale di 600 miliardi di dollari nel 2015 dovrebbe essere preoccupato per la debolezza della valuta. Ma una combinazione di fattori, tra cui il rallentamento della crescita economica e un graduale allentamento delle restrizioni sugli investimenti all'estero, ha scatenato un fiume di uscite di capitale.

I privati ​​cittadini sono ora autorizzati a portare fino a 50.000 dollari all'anno fuori dal paese. Se solo uno su 20 cittadini cinesi esercitasse questa opzione, le riserve cinesi in valuta estera si prosciugherebbero. Allo stesso tempo, le aziende piene di liquidità cinesi si stanno avvalendo di tutti i tipi di dispositivi per liberarsi del denaro. Un approccio perfettamente legale è di prestare in renminbi e rimborsare in valuta estera.

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