Traditional rooftop architecture in China

Die große Flucht aus China

CAMBRIDGE – Seit Jahresbeginn 2016 hängt die Aussicht auf eine starke Abwertung des chinesischen Renminbi über den Weltmärkten wie ein Damoklesschwert. Keine andere Quelle politischer Unsicherheit ist derart destabilisierend. Wenige Beobachter zweifeln, dass China den Wechselkurs des Renminbi irgendwann während des kommenden Jahrzehnts wird freigeben müssen. Die Frage ist, welche Dramen sich angesichts der Kollision politischer und wirtschaftlicher Zwänge bis dahin abspielen werden.

Es mag seltsam scheinen, dass ein Land, das 2015 einen Handelsüberschuss von 600 Milliarden erzielte, sich Sorgen über die Schwäche seiner Währung machen muss. Doch hat eine Kombination von Faktoren, zu denen die Verlangsamung des wirtschaftlichen Wachstums und eine allmähliche Lockerung der Beschränkungen für Auslandsinvestitionen gehören, eine Flut von Kapitalabflüssen ausgelöst.

Private Bürger dürfen jetzt bis zu als 50.000 Dollar pro Jahr außer Landes bringen. Wenn nur jeder zwanzigste Chinese diese Option ausüben würde, wären Chinas Devisenreserven dahin. Zugleich haben Chinas bargeldreiche Unternehmen alle möglichen Tricks genutzt, um ihr Geld außer Landes zu schaffen. Ein völlig legaler Ansatz ist dabei, einen Kredit in Renminbi zu vergeben und ihn in einer Fremdwährung tilgen zu lassen.

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