Traditional rooftop architecture in China

中国大逃亡

发自剑桥—— 自今年年初以来,人民币大幅贬值的预期已经成为了高悬于全球市场头上的达摩克利斯之剑。从来没有任何一个政策不确定性的来源能对各方面的稳定造成如此重大的影响。少数观察家怀疑中国将在未来十年中的某个时间点被迫随人民币汇率自由浮动,问题则是在这一过渡期间会因为政治和经济规则发生冲突而产生多少乱象。

一个在 2015 年还拥有6000 亿美元贸易顺差的国家竟然会担心货币走软,这似乎有点奇怪。但众多因素结合在一起,包括经济增长放缓和逐步放宽对国外投资的限制,已经引发了巨大的资本外流。

按规定每个中国公民每年可以携带 5万美元出国。如果20个中国人中有一个采取此做法,中国的外汇储备就会灰飞烟灭。同时现金充裕的中国企业公司也开始动用各种手段往外汇钱。一个完全合法的做法是对外出借人民币并要求以外币偿还。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/1LbjMka/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now