Traditional rooftop architecture in China


发自剑桥—— 自今年年初以来,人民币大幅贬值的预期已经成为了高悬于全球市场头上的达摩克利斯之剑。从来没有任何一个政策不确定性的来源能对各方面的稳定造成如此重大的影响。少数观察家怀疑中国将在未来十年中的某个时间点被迫随人民币汇率自由浮动,问题则是在这一过渡期间会因为政治和经济规则发生冲突而产生多少乱象。

一个在 2015 年还拥有6000 亿美元贸易顺差的国家竟然会担心货币走软,这似乎有点奇怪。但众多因素结合在一起,包括经济增长放缓和逐步放宽对国外投资的限制,已经引发了巨大的资本外流。

按规定每个中国公民每年可以携带 5万美元出国。如果20个中国人中有一个采取此做法,中国的外汇储备就会灰飞烟灭。同时现金充裕的中国企业公司也开始动用各种手段往外汇钱。一个完全合法的做法是对外出借人民币并要求以外币偿还。

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