La sorpresa de la política monetaria de China

NEW HAVEN – En política económica, como en la mayoría de las esferas, las acciones dicen mucho más que las palabras. Al reducir sus tipos de interés oficiales y de referencia, el Banco Popular de China (BPC) ha puesto de relieve el enfoque táctico de la política de estabilización del Gobierno, encaminada a establecer un límite mínimo del siete por ciento al crecimiento del PIB.

La consecución de ese objetivo no será una pequeña hazaña precisamente. La economía de China afronta vientos estructurales en contra debidos al paso a un nuevo modelo de crecimiento impulsado por los servicios y el consumo y una presión cíclica, pues unas duras condiciones mundiales ejercen una presión reductora del antiguo modelo impulsado por la inversión y las exportaciones.

Las dificultades cíclicas, en particular, están resultando más graves de lo previsto. Aunque las exportaciones han disminuido considerablemente desde su punto máximo anterior a la crisis del 35 por ciento del PIB, siguen representando el 24 por ciento, aproximadamente, lo que deja a China expuesta al ciclo de crecimiento mundial, en particular en los mercados del mundo desarrollado, donde la demanda es excepcionalmente débil.

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