Chinas geldpolitische Überraschung

NEW HAVEN – In der Wirtschaftspolitik wie in den meisten anderen Bereichen zählen Taten mehr als Worte. Durch ihre Senkung der Leitzinsen hat die chinesische Volksbank den taktischen Fokus der Stabilisierungspolitik der Regierung aufgezeigt, die eine Wachstumsuntergrenze von etwa 7% vom BIP anstrebt.

Dieses Ziel zu erreichen wird keine leichte Aufgabe. Chinas Volkswirtschaft erlebt derzeit strukturellen Gegenwind, der aus der Umstellung hin zu einem neuen dienstleistungs- und konsumorientierten Wachstumsmodell herrührt. Zugleich steht sie unter zyklischem Druck, da das schwierige weltwirtschaftliche Umfeld das alte export- und investitionsgestützte Modell belastet.

Insbesondere die zyklischen Herausforderungen erweisen sich als unerwartet schwerwiegend. Zwar sind die Exporte gegenüber ihrem Höchstwert von 35% vom BIP im Vorfeld der Krise deutlich gefallen; sie betragen allerdings nach wie vor etwa 24%. Dies setzt China globalen konjunkturzyklischen Risiken aus – insbesondere aus den Märkten in der entwickelten Welt, wo die Nachfrage außergewöhnlich schwach ist.

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