La surprise de politique monétaire chinoise

NEW HAVEN – En matière de politique économique, comme dans la plupart des autres domaines, les actes en disent plus long que les mots. En réduisant ses taux d'intérêt de référence, la Banque Populaire de Chine (PBOC) a mis l'accent sur la tactique de politique de stabilisation du gouvernement, qui vise à mettre en place un plancher d'environ 7% sur la croissance du PIB.

Atteindre cet objectif ne sera pas une mince affaire. L'économie chinoise fait face à des vents contraires structurels découlant de la transition vers le nouveau modèle de l'économie des services et vers une croissance orientée par la consommation. Mais la pression conjoncturelle, jointe à un environnement mondial difficile, exerce une pression à la baisse sur l'ancien modèle orienté vers les exportations et les investissements.

Les défis conjoncturels, en particulier, s'avèrent être plus graves que prévu. Bien que les exportations aient considérablement diminué depuis leur pic d'avant la crise à 35% du PIB, elles continuent de représenter environ 24%, ce qui laisse la Chine exposée au cycle de croissance mondiale, en particulier par rapport aux marchés du monde développé, où la demande est exceptionnellement faible.

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