中国的货币政策惊奇

纽黑文—与其他大多数领域一样,经济政策也是言大于行。中国人民银行降低基准政策利率的措施彰显出中国政府对稳定政策的战术性关注。中国政府将GDP增长下限定在7%左右。

实现这一目标是个不小的成就。中国经济面临结构性问题,这些问题来自经济转型(向新的服务和消费拉动经济)以及周期性压力(严峻的全球环境对旧的出口和投资拉动型模式形成了压力)。

特别是,周期性挑战要比预想的更加严重。尽管出口占GDP之比已经从危机前峰值35%大幅下降,但仍高达24%,这意味着中国需受全球增长周期的影响——特别是需求尤其疲软的发达国家市场。

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