Chinese currency in coins SIPA Asia via ZUMA Wire

Fausse alarme concernant la Chine

NEW HAVEN – La perspective d'un effondrement économique en Chine a fait trembler les marchés financiers mondiaux au début de 2016. Pourtant, ces craintes sont exagérées. Bien que la tourmente sur les marchés des actions et des changes chinois ne doive pas être prise à la légère, le pays continue à faire des progrès encourageants en termes d’ajustements structurels dans son économie réelle. Ce décalage entre les progrès de rééquilibrage économique et les reculs dans les réformes financières devra nécessairement être résolu alors que la Chine entre aujourd’hui dans une phase critique de sa transition vers un nouveau modèle de croissance. Mais il n’indique aucune crise imminente.

Conformément à la longue expérience de planification centrale en Chine, le pays continue à exceller dans la réingénierie industrielle. Les tendances en 2015 en ont été un bon exemple : l'expansion de 8,3% du secteur des services a dépassé celle des secteurs autrefois dominants de l’industrie et de la construction, qui, ensemble, ont connu une croissance de seulement 6% l'an dernier. Le secteur appelé tertiaire a augmenté jusqu’à représenter 50,5% du PIB chinois en 2015, bien au-delà de la part de 47% qui était visée en 2011, lors de l’adoption du 12e plan quinquennal, et carrément dix points de pourcentage de plus que la part de 40,5% occupée par les activités du secteur secondaire (industrie et construction).

Ce changement important dans la structure économique de la Chine est d'une importance vitale pour la stratégie de rééquilibrage menée par les consommateurs du pays. Le développement des services crée de nombreuses possibilités d'emploi en milieu urbain, un élément clé de génération de revenus personnels. Etant donné que les services chinois requièrent environ 30% plus d'emplois par unité de production que l’industrie et la construction combinées, la force relative du secteur tertiaire a joué un rôle important pour limiter le chômage et éviter l'instabilité sociale – longtemps la plus grande crainte de la Chine. Au contraire, malgré le ralentissement de la croissance du PIB, la création d'emplois en milieu urbain a atteint les 11 millions en 2015, dépassant l'objectif du gouvernement de dix millions et en légère augmentation par rapport aux 10,7 millions de 2014.

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