Chinese currency in coins SIPA Asia via ZUMA Wire

错误的中国警报

纽黑文—2016年伊始,中国经济崩溃论给全球金融市场造成了剧烈动荡。但这样的恐慌过于夸张。中国股票和货币市场动荡决不能掉以轻心,但中国在实体经济的结构调整方面仍然取得了令人鼓舞的进步。如今,中国已经进入向新增长模式转型的临界点,经济再平衡的进步与金融改革的退步之间的错配最终必须得到解决。但这并不意味着危机近在眼前。

与中国长期中央计划的经验相符,如今它仍然擅长产业再造。2015年的趋势印证了这一点:服务业扩张8.3%,超过了曾经的领头羊制造业和建筑业,后两者总量去年只增长了6%。2015年,所谓的第三产业占中国GDP之比为50.5%,大大高于2011年实施十二五规划时的目标47%,更是比第二产业活动(制造业和建筑业)的40.5%高出了整整十个百分点。

中国经济结构的这一重大变化对于其消费拉动的再平衡战略具有关键重要性。服务业发展奠定了城市发展机会,而城市发展机会有是个人收入的重要基础。对于每单位产出,中国服务业所需要的就业岗位数量比制造业和建筑业加起来还要多30%,因此,第三产业的相对强势对于遏制失业、防止社会动荡(长期以来这一直是中国最大的担忧)具有重要作用。相反,即使面临GDP增长减速,2015年城市就业岗位仍然增加了1,100万个,高于一千万的政府目标,也比2014年的1,070万略有增加。

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