Nanjing road Shanghai L1mey/Flickr

中国的信用过量

上海—两位数的经济增长已经一去不返了。事实上,中国年经济增长率自2012年以来一直徘徊在7.5%左右,今年预计将下降到7%,并且有可能继续降低。这是中国的“新常态”,用中国领导人的话说,其特征是“中高速”(而不是高速)增长。但也许“中高速”也有些乐观了。

在过去两年中,信用增长几乎是GDP的两倍,社会融资总额增长得还要快。但GDP增长较2002—2011年间的年平均水平10.2%大幅放缓,表明中国也许更接近于中低速增长路径。

信用和GDP增长分化的一个可能解释是潜在增长已经下降到7%。但潜在增长如此剧烈的降幅通常意味着猛烈的“刹车”,以外部冲击或重大内部调整的形式发生。在正常情况下,经济的潜在增长率会随着结构变化进展而自然缓慢地调整。

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