Nanjing road Shanghai L1mey/Flickr

الصين تتناول جرعة زائدة من الائتمان

شنغهاي ــ لقد ولَّت أيام النمو الاقتصادي بمعدلات تتجاوز 10% في الصين. والواقع أن معدل النمو السنوي، الذي تراجع إلى مستوى 7.5% منذ عام 2012، من المتوقع أن يهبط إلى 7% هذا العام ــ ومن المرجح أن ينخفض إلى مستويات أدنى. هذا هو الوضع "العادي الجديد" في الصين، والذي يتسم وفقاً لقادة الصين بالنمو "المتوسط إلى العالي السرعة" (بدلاً من النمو السريع المتواصل). ولكن ربما كان حتى هذا مفرطاً في التفاؤل.

في العامين الأخيرين، كان معدل نمو الائتمان ضعف معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، وكان نمو إجمالي التمويل الاجتماعي أسرع حتى من ذلك. ورغم هذا فقد تباطأ نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بشكل كبير ــ من متوسط 10.2% سنوياً في الفترة 2002-2011 ــ الأمر الذي يشير إلى أن الصين قد تقترب من مسار النمو المتوسط إلى المنخفض السرعة.

ولعل أحد التفسيرات المحتملة لهذا التباعد بين نمو الائتمان ونمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي هو أن النمو المحتمل انخفض بالفعل إلى 7%. ولكن مثل هذا الانخفاض الحاد في النمو المحتمل ينطوي عادة على مكابح قوية، في هيئة صدمة خارجية أو تعديلات داخلية كبرى. في ظل الظروف العادي، يجري تعديل النمو المحتمل لأي اقتصاد بشكل طبيعي وتدريجي، مع تقدم التغير البنيوي.

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