China debt VCG/Getty Images

El desafío de la deuda corporativa de China

WASHINGTON, DC – La economía china se ha desacelerado en los últimos años, pero sigue siendo un actor sólido que aporta aproximadamente un tercio del crecimiento económico total a nivel mundial. También se está volviendo más sustentable, en línea con el cambio en el modelo de crecimiento que se vino alejando de la inversión y las exportaciones hacia la demanda y los servicios domésticos.

En el período previo a la inminente cumbre del G-20 del mes próximo en Hangzhou, China ha venido reclamando a viva voz nuevos compromisos con reformas estructurales a fin de estimular el crecimiento en las economías avanzadas y de mercados emergentes. Pero China enfrenta serios riesgos en casa. Por sobre todo, el crédito doméstico sigue expandiéndose a un ritmo insostenible y la deuda corporativa se acumula a niveles peligrosos.

Según el informe anual sobre la economía china del Fondo Monetario Internacional, publicado recientemente, el crédito crece cerca del doble de rápido que la producción. Aumenta a pasos acelerados tanto en el sector privado no financiero como en el sector financiero en expansión e interconectado que sigue siendo opaco. Es más, si bien el crecimiento del crédito es alto en términos de estándares internacionales -un indicador clave de una crisis potencial-, su capacidad para fomentar un mayor crecimiento está disminuyendo.

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