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Das Problem der chinesischen Unternehmensschulden

WASHINGTON, DC – Die chinesische Wirtschaft hat sich in den letzten Jahren verlangsamt, ist aber immer noch stark und trägt zu etwa einem Drittel zum Gesamtwachstum der Weltwirtschaft bei. Auch wird sie immer nachhaltiger – im Einklang mit dem Übergang des Wachstumsmodells weg von Investitionen und Exporten hin zu Inlandsnachfrage und Dienstleistungen.

Im Vorfeld des G20-Gipfels im chinesischen Hangzhou im nächsten Monat hat sich China deutlich für neue Strukturreformen ausgesprochen, um das Wachstum in den Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern zu stimulieren. Aber das Reich der Mitte steht selbst vor ernsten Risiken. Vor allem wachsen die inländischen Kredite mit einer unhaltbaren Geschwindigkeit weiter, und die Unternehmensschulden haben ein gefährliches Niveau erreicht.

Laut des kürzlich veröffentlichten Jahresberichts über die chinesische Wirtschaft des Internationalen Währungsfonds wachsen die Kredite im Land etwa doppelt so schnell wie die Produktion. Dies ist sowohl im privaten Nichtfinanzsektor der Fall, als auch im damit verbundenen Finanzsektor, der weiterhin undurchsichtig bleibt. Darüber hinaus ist das Kreditwachstum, das auch nach internationalen Maßstäben hoch ist und einen Schlüsselindikator für eine mögliche Krise darstellt, immer weniger in der Lage, weiteres Wirtschaftswachstum zu generieren.

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