China debt VCG/Getty Images

Le défi de l'endettement des entreprises chinoises

WASHINGTON – Même si elle a ralenti depuis quelques années, la croissance de l'économie chinoise reste forte et contribue au tiers de la croissance mondiale. Elle devrait rester stable à long terme grâce au passage d'un modèle de croissance basé sur l'investissement et les exportations à un autre basé sur les services et le demande intérieure.

Dans l'attente du sommet du G20 début septembre à Hangzhou, la Chine appelle les pays avancés et émergents à des réformes structurelles destinées à stimuler la croissance. Mais des menaces intérieures planent sur l'économie chinoise. Il s'agit avant tout du crédit qui croît à un rythme insoutenable, tandis que l'endettement des entreprises atteint un niveau dangereux.

Selon le tout récent rapport annuel du FMI sur l'économie chinoise, le taux de croissance du crédit est le double de celui de la production. Il est en hausse rapide dans tous les secteurs, y compris dans le secteur financier interconnecté qui reste opaque. Bien que la hausse du volume du crédit soit élevée comparé aux normes internationales (c'est un indicateur clé d'une crise potentielle), sa capacité de stimulation de la croissance est à la baisse.

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