China trotzt der globalen Kernschmelze

PEKING – Drei Jahrzehnte lang wies China eine durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate von 9,8 Prozent auf. Die meiste Zeit über war die Situation auf den Weltmärkten günstig. Große globale Wirtschafts- oder Finanzkrisen und Abschwünge fehlten. Ja, es gab regionale Krisen wie die Turbulenzen auf den südostasiatischen Finanzmärkten in den Jahren 1997 und 1998, den Zusammenbruch der japanischen Immobilienblase im Jahr 1990 oder der amerikanischen Dotcom-Blase im Jahr 2000. Aber keine dieser schwierigen Situationen erwies sich als ernsthaftes Hindernis für den langen Boom Chinas.

In den letzten drei Monaten allerdings kam es zu einem signifikanten Rückgang der chinesischen Exporte, der Inlandsinvestitionen, der Industrieproduktion und der Steuereinnahmen. Ein massiver Abschwung scheint sich anzubahnen. Wird das rasche Wachstum Chinas fortbestehen?

Ich glaube schon. Innerhalb Chinas ist der derzeitige Abschwung größtenteils hausgemacht. Seit 2004 hat die chinesische Regierung versucht, eine Wachstumsrate von 12 Prozent auf nachhaltigere 8 bis 9 Prozent zu senken und damit eine überhitzte Wirtschaft abzukühlen. Man begann sogar, Exporte zu besteuern, um den Handelsüberschuss zu begrenzen.

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