La Chine face à la récession mondiale

PEKIN – Depuis 30 ans, la Chine poursuit sa croissance à un taux annuel moyen de 9,8%. Les marchés mondiaux ont favorisé cette croissance, car il n'y pas eu de crise économique ou financière mondiale importante pendant cette période. Il y a eu des problèmes régionaux - la crise financière asiatique en 1997-98, l'éclatement de la bulle de l'immobilier au Japon en 1990 et celle des nouvelles technologies en Amérique en 2000 - mais cela n'a pas freiné le long boom économique chinois.

Néanmoins, depuis trois mois les exportations chinoises sont nettement à la baisse, de même que les investissements, la production industrielle et les revenus fiscaux. Un ralentissement majeur s'annonce à l'horizon. Dans ces conditions, la Chine pourra-t-elle maintenir sa croissance rapide ?

Je pense que oui. Le ralentissement actuel est dû essentiellement à des facteurs internes. Depuis 2004, le gouvernement chinois cherche à freiner une économie en surchauffe en ramenant le taux de croissance de 12% à 8 ou 9%, un taux plus réaliste sur le long terme. Il a même commencé à diminuer la taxe sur les exportations de manière à réduire le surplus commercial.

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