中国面临的全球性危机

北京-三十年来,中国一直保持着平均每年9 .8%的增长率。此期间的大部分时间,世界市场是对中国是有利的,没有出现任何重大的全球性经济和金融危机或经济减速。是曾发生过地区性的危机,比如1997- 1998年间的东南亚金融风暴或日本房地产泡沫在1990年的破裂,以及美国的高科技泡沫在2000年的破裂。但这些危机没有一个最终对中国的长期繁荣造成严重障碍。

然而,过去的三个月里,中国的出口、国内投资、工业产值和税收都有相当的放缓。重大的经济减速似乎就要来临。中国的快速增长还会持续吗?

我相信会。中国国内目前的减速主要是自己造成的。自2004年以来,中国政府一直试图给过热的经济降温,把增长率从12 %降到更具持续性的8-9 %的水平 。国家甚至开始征收出口税,以减少贸易顺差。

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