Communist Party of China leaders Ma Zhancheng/ZumaPress

El problema de la complejidad de China

NEW HAVEN – La ingente transición de China a lo que sus dirigentes llaman una sociedad moderadamente acomodada presenta muchos aspectos cambiantes. Se están produciendo simultáneamente movimientos tectónicos en varios frentes: la economía, los mercados financieros, la estrategia geopolítica y la política social. La prueba definitiva podría muy bien ser la gestión de las relaciones mutuas entre esas evoluciones. ¿Están los dirigentes de China a la altura de esa tarea o han intentado hacer demasiado a la vez?

La mayoría de los comentaristas occidentales siguen simplificando en demasía ese debate, enmarcándolo en las proverbiales situaciones de aterrizaje difícil por parte de China, en lo que llevan veinte años equivocándose. A raíz del desplome del mercado de valores de este verano y la sorprendente devaluación del renmimbi, de nuevo está ocurriendo lo mismo. Sin embargo, yo sospecho que los temores de una recesión declarada en China son muy exagerados.

Si bien no se debe trivializar el debate sobre las perspectivas de China a corto plazo, la historia mucho más importante es la de los sólidos avances de su economía por la vía de la reequilibración: a saber, el paso estructural de las actividades manufactureras y de construcción a los servicios. En 2014, el porcentaje del PIB de China correspondiente a los servicios alcanzó el 48,2 por ciento, muy superior al 42,6 por ciento correspondiente a la manufactura y la construcción combinadas. Y esa distancia sigue ampliándose: la actividad de los servicios aumentó un 8,4 por ciento en el año comprendido hasta la primera mitad de 2015, con lo que superó en gran medida el crecimiento del 6,1 por ciento de la manufactura y la construcción.

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