Wird Chinas Infrastrukturbank funktionieren?

CAMBRIDGE – Die Debatte über die derzeit im Entstehen begriffene Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), eine neue, 50 Milliarden Dollar schwere internationale Finanzinstitution unter Führung Chinas, hat sich bisher überwiegend auf die erfolglosen Bemühungen der USA konzentriert, andere hochentwickelte Länder von einem Beitritt abzuhalten. Viel zu wenig Aufmerksamkeit wurde bisher der Frage geschenkt, warum die Vergabe multilateraler Entwicklungskredite so häufig scheitert und was man tun könnte, damit sie besser funktioniert.

Multilaterale Institutionen zur Entwicklungsförderung waren bisher vermutlich besonders dort über längere Zeit erfolgreich, wo sie als „Wissensbanken“ dienten, die halfen, Erfahrungen, bewährte Verfahren und technisches Knowhow regionsübergreifend weiterzugeben. Besonders deutlich gescheitert dagegen sind sie, wenn sie bombastische Projekte finanzierten, von denen die jeweils aktuelle Elite profitierte, aber bei denen Umwelt-, Gesellschafts- und Entwicklungsprioritäten nicht richtig im Gleichgewicht standen.

Ein häufiges Beispiel war in der Vergangenheit der Staudammbau. Im Allgemeinen besteht die Neigung, den wirtschaftlichen Nutzen großer Infrastrukturprojekte in Ländern, die unter schlechter Regierungsführung und Korruption leiden, zu überschätzen und die langfristigen gesellschaftlichen Kosten des Zwangs, Kredite auch dann zurückzuzahlen, wenn sich die versprochenen Einnahmen nicht realisieren lassen, zu unterschätzen. Diesem Risiko ist offensichtlich auch die AIIB ausgesetzt.

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