中国的基础设施银行能行吗?

美国剑桥—中国即将领导一个500亿美元规模的新国际金融机构——亚洲基础设施投资银行(亚投行),而大部分争论集中在美国徒劳地鼓动其他发达经济体不要参加。几乎没人试图去理解为何多边发展贷款常常以失败告终,以及能够做些什么让它更管用。

多边发展机构最持久的成功也许是作为“知识”银行、帮助共享地区间经验、最佳实践和技术知识的时候。反之,它们最大的失败来自为宏伟工程融资,这些工程让当前精英集团获益,而没有实现环境、社会和发展重点的合理平衡。

水坝建设是最显著的历史例子之一。总体而言,对于治理不善和腐败横行的国家,其大型基础设施工程的经济收益会是多少有一种高估的倾向,而对于不论预期收入是否实现,偿还贷款的长期社会成本会是多少则有一种低估趋势。

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