Paul Lachine

China passt sich an

BAHRAIN – China-Beobachter sind gespannt, ob das Land eine sanfte Landung bewerkstelligt und eine Abkühlung der konjunkturellen Überhitzung und eine nachhaltigere Wachstumsrate erreicht, oder ob Asiens Drache, ähnlich wie andere in der Nachbarschaft, auf eine harte Landung zusteuert. Einige, vor allem amerikanische Politiker im derzeitigen Präsidentschaftswahljahr, richten ihr Augenmerk dabei allerdings nur auf einen Umstand: Chinas Handelsbilanz.

Es stimmt, vor nicht allzu langer Zeit war der Renminbi deutlich unterbewertet und Chinas Handelsbilanzüberschüsse waren enorm. Diese Situation ändert sich. In der chinesischen Wirtschaft sind Anpassungskräfte am Werk, also muss auch die Wahrnehmung im Ausland angepasst werden.

Im Jahr 2008 hat Chinas Handelsbilanzüberschuss mit 300 Milliarden US-Dollar einen Höhepunkt erreicht und ist seitdem gesunken. (Amtlichen Daten zufolge hat China im Februar sogar ein Defizit in Höhe von 31 Milliarden US-Dollar erwirtschaftet, das höchste seit 1998.) Es liegt auf der Hand, was passiert ist. Seit sich China mit Beginn der Reform- und Öffnungspolitik vor dreißig Jahren erneut der Weltwirtschaft geöffnet hat, haben seine Handelspartner die Exporte seiner verarbeitenden Industrie aufgekauft, weil diese durch chinesische Niedriglöhne außerordentlich wettbewerbsfähig waren. Doch in den vergangenen Jahren haben sich die relativen Preise angepasst.

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