US President-elect Joe Biden may have promised a “return to normalcy,” but the truth is that there is no going back. The world is changing in fundamental ways, and the actions the world takes in the next few years will be critical to lay the groundwork for a sustainable, secure, and prosperous future.
For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world’s foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.
But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.
As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads and book reviews, Say More contributor interviews, The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.
By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.
BEIJING – China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9% annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed 5% growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least 2% annual full-year growth – not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.
Consumption growth is a key consideration in determining China’s likely overall performance in 2020. While final consumption figures for the third quarter are not yet available, total retail sales of social consumer goods offer a useful proxy. Unfortunately, the picture is not particularly bright: though monthly growth in retail sales of social consumer goods has turned positive since August, total sales fell 5.9% year on year in the first ten months of 2020.
The consensus in China is that the annual growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods will turn positive only at the very end of this year, despite the recovery in household consumption. And past experience suggests that final consumption growth will be even lower. In 2019, for example, the figures were 6.3% and 8%, respectively.
We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
To continue reading, subscribe now.
Subscribe
orRegister for FREE to access two premium articles per month.
Register
Already have an account? Log in