中国将增长得多快?

北京—在市场经济改革以来的35年中,中国的平均增长率高达9.8%——这是前所未有的爆炸式增长。但有迹象表明中国奇迹正在走向终点——或者至少经济增长正在放缓。自2010年一季度以来,中国的增长率一直在下降。2014年三季度,经济增长率降到了相对较低的7.3%。

随着2014年临近尾声,中国的经济增长可能将继续面临强劲的逆风,至少与前几十年相比是如此。2015年,决策者将制定中国的十三五规划,他们将面临一个基本问题:可以预期中国增长得多快?

在制定一国GDP目标时,首先要明白经济的潜在增长率,即假设内部和外部条件有利、未来增长稳定性与可持续性不会受到威胁的情况下的最快扩张速度。亚当·斯密在《国富论》中论证了经济增长取决于劳动生产率的改善,而今天劳动生产率的改善要么来自技术创新,要么来自产业升级(将产能重新配置给更高附加值的新部门)。

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