Tony Blair Stefan Rousseau/Stringer

Revisitando la guerra de Irak

NUEVA YORK – Siete años, 12 volúmenes de evidencias, hallazgos y conclusiones y un resumen ejecutivo más tarde, el Informe de la Investigación sobre Irak, más comúnmente conocido como el Informe Chilcot (por su presidente, Sir John Chilcot), está a disposición de todos los que lo quieran leer. Pocas personas lo leerán en su totalidad; el resumen ejecutivo solamente (muchas más de 100 páginas) es tan extenso que amerita su propio resumen ejecutivo.

Pero sería una lástima que el Informe no fuera leído y, más importante aún, estudiado más ampliamente, porque contiene algunos conceptos útiles de cómo opera la diplomacia, cómo se hacen las políticas y cómo se toman las decisiones. También nos recuerda la importancia crucial de la decisión de invadir Irak en 2003, y de las consecuencias, para entender la situación en Oriente Medio hoy.

Un tema central del Informe es que la guerra de Irak no tenía que suceder y, ciertamente, no cuando sucedió. La decisión de entrar en guerra se basó en parte en inteligencia errónea. Irak constituía, en el peor de los casos, una amenaza creciente, no una amenaza inminente. Prácticamente no se exploraron alternativas al uso de fuerza militar -sobre todo, fortalecer el cumplimiento y el respaldo pobre por parte de Turquía y Jordania de las sanciones de las Naciones Unidas destinadas a presionar a Saddam Hussein-. La diplomacia fue precipitada.

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