Historia de dos crisis de América Latina

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO – Si fuéramos unos optimistas irremediables veríamos los próximos acontecimientos en Venezuela y Colombia como un presagio de lo bueno que está por venir. En Venezuela, las elecciones presidenciales del 7 de octubre pueden poner fin a los catorce años en el poder de Hugo Chávez, al igual que a su destrucción sistemática de la economía, la represión a los medios de comunicación y las interminables intromisiones en los asuntos de otros países. En Colombia, las conversaciones de paz programadas para el 8 de octubre en Noruega entre el gobierno del Presidente, Juan Manuel Santos, y las FARC, pueden acabar con cuarenta años de guerra y derramamiento de sangre.

Por desgracia, ninguno de los dos resultados es probable. En ambos casos lo que es deseable parece ser sumamente improbable.

Chávez ha participado directamente en cuatro elecciones en Venezuela: en 1998, cuando fue elegido por primera vez; en 2004, cuando la oposición exigió que se llevará a cabo un referéndum revocatorio; en 2006, cuando fue reelegido; y ahora, mientras se recupera del cáncer y el país está en medio de una gran crisis de seguridad pública, que ha convertido a Caracas en una de las ciudades más peligrosas del mundo. Chávez ganó las primeras tres elecciones, y por varias razones, parece estar preparado para ganar de nuevo.

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