Латиноамериканская повесть о двух кризисах

МЕХИКО. Для неисправимого оптимиста грядущие события в Венесуэле и Колумбии могли показаться предвестниками будущих благ. В Венесуэле президентские выборы 7 октября могут положить конец 14 летнему правлению Уго Чавеса наряду с его систематическим разрушением экономики, ограничениями средств массовой информации, а также бесконечным вмешательством в дела других стран. В Колумбии мирные переговоры, запланированные на 8 октября в Норвегии между правительством президента Хуана Мануэля Сантоса и партизанами FARC, могут положить конец 40-летней войне и кровопролитию.

К сожалению, такой исход событий маловероятен. В обоих случаях то, что представляется желательным, оказывается малоправдоподобным.

Чавес принимал непосредственное участие в четырех венесуэльских выборах: в 1998 году, когда он был избран в первый раз, в 2004 году, когда оппозиция вынудила вернуться к выборам; в 2006 году, когда он был переизбран; и теперь, когда он оправился от рака и страна находится в самом центре самого сильного кризиса общественной безопасности, который сделал Каракас одним из самых опасных городов в мире. Чавес выиграл первые три и, по нескольким причинам, кажется, готов выиграть еще раз.

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