A história de duas crises na América Latina

CIDADE DO MÉXICO – Para quem é um optimista irremediável, os eventos que estão para acontecer na Venezuela e na Colômbia poderiam ser vistos como um prenúncio de um futuro melhor. Na Venezuela, a eleição presidencial de 7 de Outubro pode pôr fim a 14 anos de poder de Hugo Chávez, juntamente com a sua destruição sistemática da economia, medidas de controlo sobre os media e a interminável intromissão nos assuntos de outros países. Na Colômbia, as negociações de paz agendadas para 8 de Outubro na Noruega, entre o governo do presidente Juan Manuel Santos e os guerrilheiros das FARC, pode pôr fim a 40 anos de guerra e derramamento de sangue.

Infelizmente, nenhum destes resultados é provável. Em ambos os casos, o que parece desejável parece altamente improvável.

Chávez participou directamente em quatro eleições venezuelanas: em 1998, quando foi eleito pela primeira vez; em 2004, quando a oposição forçou um referendo, em 2006, quando foi reeleito; e agora, ao mesmo tempo que recupera de um cancro e o país está no meio de uma crise de segurança pública que tornou Caracas numa das cidades mais perigosas do mundo. Chávez ganhou as três primeiras, e, por várias razões, parece preparado para ganhar novamente.

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