Les deux crises de l’Amérique latine

MEXICO CITY – En s’abandonnant à un optimisme impénitent, on pourrait considérer les événements du Venezuela et de Colombie comme les signes avant-coureurs de bonnes nouvelles à venir. Au Venezuela, l’élection du 7 octobre pourrait mettre un terme à 14 années de règne de Hugo Chávez, et à leur lot de destruction systématique de l’économie, de mesures de répression des médias et d’ingérence effrénée dans les affaires de pays extérieurs. En Colombie, les pourparlers de paix prévus pour le 8 octobre en Norvège entre le gouvernement du président Juan Manuel Santos et les guérilleros des FARC éveillent l’espoir d’un coup d’arrêt à 40 ans de guerre et d’effusions de sang.

Malheureusement, il est peu probable que ces scénarios aboutissent à de tels dénouements. Dans les deux cas, la réalité future semble vouée à contredire les espoirs qui sont les nôtres.

Chávez a directement participé à quatre élections au Venezuela : en 1998, lorsqu’il a été élu pour la première fois ; en 2004, lorsque l’opposition a exigé un référendum pour sa destitution ; en 2006, année de sa réélection ; et aujourd’hui encore, tandis que Chávez récupère des suites d’un cancer, et que le pays est plongé au cœur d’une grave crise de l’ordre public, qui voit Caracas se positionner en tant que ville la plus dangereuse de la planète. Chávez a remporté les trois premières batailles, et, pour plusieurs raisons, semble destiné à gagner de nouveau.

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