Die kommende Hitzezeit

PEKING – In den letzten etwa 100.000 Jahren fanden auf unserem Planeten eine Eiszeit und ein paar Mini-Eiszeiten statt. Aber jetzt, wo sich die Erde wahrscheinlich bis zum Jahr 2100 um vier Grad Celsius erwärmt, steht uns eine „Hitzezeit“ bevor.

Dies ist keine Panikmache. Nach Angaben des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) können wir bis 2100 eine Durchschnittssteigerung der Oberflächentemperatur von 3,7ºC erwarten, in einer wahrscheinlichen Bandbreite zwischen 2,6 und 4,8 Grad. Eine wärmere Welt wird massenhafte Auswanderungen aus betroffenen Gebieten zur Folge haben und die bestehenden Wohlstandsunterschiede zwischen den Ländern vergrößern. Nach Aussage von David Victor von der University of California in San Diego wird die kommende Hitzezeit „schmutzig, brutal und heiß“ sein.

In diesem Jahr wird eine Rekordhöhe der Treibhausgasemissionen von 36 Milliarden Tonnen erwartet. Diese Zahl wird wohl noch weiter dramatisch steigen, da der große Boom der Schwellenländer in den letzten Jahrzehnten, der weltweit Milliarden Menschen von der Armut befreit und die Lebensstandards erhöht hat, zunehmenden Druck auf die Ökosysteme und Ressourcen der Welt ausübt. Tatsächlich werden bis 2030 drei Milliarden neue Konsumenten der Mittelklasse zum immer weiter zunehmenden Emissionsproblem beitragen – die meisten davon in Asien.

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