即将到来的炎热时代

北京——过去100,000年左右,我们的地球经历了一个冰河时代和几个小冰河时代。但现在地球到2100年将升温4摄氏度,我们将面临一个“炎热时代”。

这绝不是制造恐慌。据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)预测,到2100年预计地表温度平均上升3.7ºC,升幅可能徘徊在2.6-4.8度。全球变暖将导致受灾地区大规模移民,并加剧国家间已经存在的贫富差距。用加州大学圣地亚哥分校大卫·维克多的话来形容,即将到来的炎热时代“肮脏、野蛮而又炎热”。

今年的温室气体排放预计将创纪录地达到360亿吨的高位。该数字预计将随近几十年的新兴市场繁荣大幅增长,在使世界各地几十亿人摆脱贫困并提高生活水平的同时,也给环境和资源造成越来越大的压力。事实上,到2030年,30亿新生中产阶级消费者(多数生活在亚洲)将导致不断增长的排放负担进一步加剧。

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