شافيز في ورطة

ساو باولو ـ يبدو أن الانتصارات الأخيرة التي حققتها المعارضة في الانتخابات التي شهدتها فنزويلا مؤخراً، فضلاً عن الأزمة المالية الدولية، قد بدأت بالفعل في فرض القيود على سلطات وصلاحيات الرئيس هوغو شافيز للمرة الأولى منذ توليه لمنصبه قبل عشرة أعوام.

الحقيقة أن هذه الانتخابات أظهرت أن سيطرة شافيز على البلاد لم تعد تامة. فقد أصبحت المعارضة صلبة في فنزويلا الآن، كما تقلصت المسافة بين حكام البلاد وبين أولئك الطامحين إلى تولي الحكم. وهذا في حد ذاته يشكل تقدماً ملموساً، على اعتبار أن المعارضة ما زالت تدفع ثمن مقاطعتها لانتخابات العام 2005 والتي أعطت شافيز السيطرة المطلقة على البرلمان.

إن تنامي قوة وتماسك المعارضة ليس راجعاً إلى تزايد عدد أنصار شافيز الساخطين عليه الذين فقدوا ولاءهم له فحسب. فهؤلاء الذين كانوا يطمحون ذات يوم إلى تأسيس "قطب ثالث" في السياسة الفنزويلية أُبعِدوا بفعل الاستقطاب التقليدي بين أنصار شافيز ومعارضيه. بل يرجع السبب وراء تنامي المعارضة في الأساس إلى عودة مستويات الدعم الشعبي التي اكتسبتها المعارضة أثناء الفترة بين العامين 1998 و2001 ـ حوالي 40% ـ ولأنها تمكنت من إعادة الممتنعين وغير المستقرين إلى حظيرتها، ومن بينهم من ينتمون إلى فصائل شعبية مهمة.

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