Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He is also a former Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.
发自苏黎世—在《金色的羁绊》这本研究一二战间隙金本位崩溃过程的大作中,美国经济史学家巴里·艾申格林(Barry Eichengreen)强调说导致整个金本位体系无法继续维系的因素是那些重大政治和社会变革,尤其是选举权覆盖面的扩大。那时候的选民们已经不愿再忍受坚守金本位所要求的紧缩政策了。
当时流行的货币政策体制在新政治格局中被扫地出门。一些国家(例如美国和英国)迅速适应了新现实,也取得了不错的经济成就;诸如法国和瑞士等国则反应迟钝并为此承担了不利后果。
而各中央银行现正迎来一个新的“金色羁绊”时刻。时间才过了十年有余,全球金融危机,气候变化和新型冠状病毒疫情就已经改变了它们的运营环境——而公众舆论也并未站在它们这边。
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