Звездная болезнь центральных банков

КЕМБРИДЖ – Почему заявления глав центральных банков ведущих экономических держав вызывают столь непомерно большое внимание в наши дни? Они ведь не объявляют каждый раз об изменении учетной ставки. У них нет какой-то новой, более надежной модели для анализа состояния экономики. Напротив, в последние годы (после кризиса) прогнозы крупнейших центральных банков относительно темпов роста ВВП и инфляции постоянно оказывались завышенными, причем существенно.

Есть много веских причин повышенного внимания к тем, кто определяет денежную политику, в том числе появление независимых центральных банков (далее ЦБ), согласие общественности с идеей нанимать компетентных технократов для надзора за денежной массой, рост значения финансовых рынков. Многих руководителей ЦБ заслуженно хвалили за ту роль, которую они сыграли в предотвращении глобального краха во время финансового кризиса.

И, тем не менее, учитывая многочисленные сомнения по поводу макроэкономических прогнозов и эффективности используемых инструментов (не в последнюю очередь, количественного смягчения), многие ученые-экономисты озадачены тем огромным шумом, который создают выступления и комментарии представителей ЦБ. Кроме того, несмотря на всё своё героическое поведение во время финансового кризиса, многие главы центральных банков оказались совершенно негибкими в нужный момент, слишком сильно заботясь о том, как бы не подскочила инфляция, на фоне дефляционной динамики. Более того, ЦБ несут часть ответственности за наступление кризиса, главным образом, из-за допущенного ослабления регулирования и надзора.

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