La fama dei banchieri centrali

CAMBRIDGE – Perchè i commenti dei banchieri centrali delle principali economie hanno oggi un’attenzione smisurata? Non cambiano in continuazione i tassi di interesse e non hanno neppure sviluppato dei modelli nuovi e più solidi per l’analisi dell’economia. Al contrario, la crescita delle principali banche centrali e le previsioni dell’inflazione negli anni successivi alla crisi finanziaria hanno prodotto delle sovrastime importanti, con ampi margini, sia sulla crescita che sull’inflazione.

Ci sono diverse buone ragioni per l’attenzione dedicata agli esperti della politica monetaria, tra cui l’aumento dell’indipendenza delle banche centrali, l’accettazione pubblica della necessità di nominare dei tecnocrati competenti per il monitoraggio della massa monetaria ed il maggiore spessore dei mercati finanziari. Molti banchieri centrali sono stati poi giustamente elogiati per il ruolo svolto nel prevenire un crollo globale durante la crisi finanziaria. 

Ciò nonostante, viste le numerose incertezze legate alle previsioni macroeconomiche e gli effetti degli strumenti politici (non ultimo il quantitative easing), diversi accademici trovano preoccupante che i discorsi e le dichiarazioni dei banchieri centrali continuino a suscitare così tanto clamore. E nonostante il loro eroismo durante la cirsi finanziaria, diversi banchieri centrali sono poi stati sin troppo inflessibili nel periodo successivo alla crisi, e si sono preoccupati troppo del superamento dei target d’inflazione e troppo poco delle dinamiche deflazionistiche. Inoltre, i banchieri centrali sono comunque in parte responsabili della crisi soprattutto a causa di politiche normative troppo lassiste.

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