中央银行家的明星效应

发自剑桥——为何当今主要经济体中央银行家们的言论都能获得超出应有范围的关注?这可不是因为他们一直在改变利率,也并非由于他们研究出了更有效的新经济分析模式。相反,自金融危机以来,各大央行对增长和通胀的预测都持续偏高——且偏离幅度极大。

而之所以对货币政策制定者有过多的关注其实有许多理由:包括中央银行独立性的风险。公众对于指派精明强干的技术官僚去监管货币供应的接受度,以及金融市场的不断深化。许多中央银行家也因为自身在金融危机中为防止全球崩溃而扮演的角色得到了公正的赞誉。

即便如此,考虑到围绕着宏观经济预测的极大不确定性,以及政策工具(不仅是量化宽松)的效果,许多学者也对中央银行家的言论和声明引发过多喧嚣而感到困惑。而虽然在金融危机的爆发过程中有许多壮举,但许多中央银行家在危机的余波中却表现得过度僵化。一方面过于担心将通胀目标定得过高,另一方面又对通缩的动力估计不足。此外中央银行家们也应该首先为整场危机承担罪责,因为正是这些人采取了过度宽松的监管政策。

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