Другие «туркменбаши» Средней Азии

Внезапная смерть диктатора почти всегда вызывает политическую нестабильность. Но она опасна вдвойне, если угрожает дестабилизацией целого региона и началом борьбы за региональное влияние между крупнейшими военными державами мира – Соединенными Штатами, Россией и Китаем.

Внезапная смерть в конце декабря Сапармурата Ниязова – авторитарного пожизненного президента Туркменистана, провозгласившего себя «туркменбаши» (лидером всех туркмен), ставит под угрозу стабильность в стране, значимость которой как поставщика энергоресурсов в Европу растет с каждым днем. Еще хуже то, что в условиях отсутствия явного преемника и слабости гражданского общества и других политических институтов, его смерть может иметь серьезные последствия для всей Средней Азии.

Действительно, кончина Ниязова привлекает внимание к более широким проблемам постсоветских режимов Средней Азии, во главе которых, за исключением Киргизстана, стоят руководители советской эпохи, которые, хоть и не будучи такими эксцентричными и эгоистичными как Ниязов, не терпят несогласия или оппозиции. Большинство из них находятся в преклонном возрасте, некоторые из них нездоровы. Так что в течение следующих нескольких лет в Средней Азии можно ожидать смену руководства на многих фронтах, где службы безопасности (которые, как в Туркменистане, играют решающую роль в поддержке сегодняшних режимов), скорее всего, будут важными игроками.

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