Lutte d'influence en Asie centrale

La mort soudaine d'un dictateur provoque presque toujours l'instabilité politique. Elle est doublement dangereuse lorsqu'elle pose un risque de déstabilisation à l'échelle de la région et de lutte d'influence entre les plus grandes puissances militaires du monde : les États-Unis, la Russie et la Chine.

La mort brutale, fin décembre, de Saparmourat Nyazov, président autoritaire à vie du Turkménistan, qui s'était autoproclamé “Turkmenbachi” (chef de tous les Turkmènes), met en péril la stabilité dans un pays dont le rôle de fournisseur d'énergie pour l'Europe est de plus en plus important. Pire encore, étant donné l'absence d'un successeur clairement désigné et la faiblesse de la société civile et d'autres institutions politiques, sa mort pourrait avoir des répercussions dans toute l'Asie centrale.

En effet, la disparition de Niyazov met en lumière les plus vastes problèmes des régimes d'Asie centrale post-soviétiques, qui, à l'exception du Kirghizstan, sont gérés par des dirigeants de l'ère soviétique. Ceux-ci, sans atteindre les niveaux d'excentricité ou d'égotisme de Nyazov, ne tolèrent que peu de dissension ou d'opposition. La plupart sont âgés, certains malades. Cela signifie qu'au cours des prochaines années, l'Asie centrale sera confrontée à des changements de dirigeants sur plusieurs fronts, là où les appareils de sécurité – qui, comme au Turkménistan, sont d'importants soutiens pour le régime – sont susceptibles de jouer des rôles non négligeables.

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