中亚的其他“土库曼领袖”

独裁者的猝死几乎无一例外地会引发政治动荡。但威胁到整个地区的稳定并引发美、俄、中等世界军事大国争夺影响力之战的独裁者之死将会带来双倍的危险。

自封为“土库曼人领袖”的土库曼斯坦终身独裁总统萨帕尔穆拉特·尼亚佐夫(Saparmurat Niyazov)12月下旬的突然去世威胁到了整个国家的稳定,而现在的土库曼斯坦已经日益成为欧洲重要的能源供应商。更为糟糕的是,由于没有明确指定继承人,公民社会和其他政治组织又十分虚弱,尼亚佐夫的猝死可能会给整个中亚地区带来影响。

实际上,尼亚佐夫之死暴露出中亚后苏联政权所面临的普遍问题,这些国家除了吉尔吉斯斯坦之外,无一例外地由前苏联时代的老板掌握政权,而这些当权者尽管不像尼亚佐夫那样极端自私和古怪,但也无法容忍任何的异议或反对意见。这些国家的当权者大多已经年迈,有些人的健康状况还很糟糕。因此,在未来若干年内,中亚将在很多领域面临领导权力的更替,而像土库曼那样在支撑国家政权时一直扮演重要角色的安全机构将很可能发挥重要的政治作用。

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