东欧转型25年

华盛顿—25年,天翻地覆。1989年,中欧和东欧开始了历史性转型,从极权共产主义转向民主资本主义。关于旧制度的记忆已经开始消逝,似乎应该回顾一下该地区的成就、总结一下教训,并考察一下未来面临的挑战。

认为该地区转型的成功属于必然是错误的。冷战结束时,中欧和东欧经济背负着沉重的国家所有制和集中投资于重工业的负担。财政和货币政策集中在提振工业增长上而不考虑宏观经济平衡,导致长期过度需求和普遍短缺。更糟糕的是,给地区大部分国家——捷克斯洛伐克是个显著的例外——饱受不可持续的外债和高企的通胀的困扰。

与此同时,极少数经济学家或决策者具有处理复杂未来任务所需要的背景。必要的转型规模庞大,不管是现代经济学还是国际货币基金组织(IMF)近50年的经验都无法提供多少指导。需要克服的挑战令人畏缩,许多人认为这是不可能的任务。

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