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西班牙研究

哥德堡——就在几天内,加泰罗尼亚地区议会很可能宣布加泰罗尼亚独立,这个地区作为西班牙的领土已经有500年历史。几小时后,西班牙政府可能会派遣数千警察扣押加泰罗尼亚高级官员,从而终结长达40年繁荣的自治。反过来,许多加泰罗尼亚人可能走上街头,发起反抗并造成可怕的后果。

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乍看之下,西班牙可能陷入混乱的想法令人感到迷惑。该国位列世界表现最好的民主政体之一——某些指标甚至领先于法国、意大利和美国。而且西班牙是全球投资者和游客最喜欢的目的地之一。漫步于巴塞罗那宏伟而迷人的街道,在那里爆发暴力冲突的可能性比在英属哥伦比亚丛林发现大猩猩还不可思议。

尽管如此,西班牙当局和加泰罗尼亚叛乱部队之间爆发身体对抗的确是可能的结果,除非主要参与方改变其行动方式。但他们都没有这样做的动机。就像电影《无因的叛逆》中的詹姆斯·迪恩和布赞一样,西班牙和加泰罗尼亚政府正加速将汽车驶向悬崖,希望对方成为先跳车的那一个。

西班牙政府认为加泰罗尼亚议会不敢单方面宣布独立,因为国际社会不会承认加泰罗尼亚独立。而加泰罗尼亚政府则信心满满地认为西班牙政府所采取的压制性对策重新唤起了人们对曾经看到的10月1日公投期间警察殴打手无寸铁的老妇和少年的记忆,西班牙当局此举将为加泰罗尼亚和平叛乱铺平道路,而国际社会有可能普遍对此表示默许。

此外,西班牙和加泰罗尼亚政府都享有强烈的民意支持。马德里执政的保守派人民党(PP)即使不讨好加泰罗尼亚选民也可以轻松地在全国选举中获胜,人民党仅有区区11%的选票来自于加泰罗尼亚选民。同样,分离主义政党可以轻松地在加泰罗尼亚议会赢得多数。此外,由于政府对公共广播机构的控制和对私人媒体渠道的大量公共补贴,双方都可以召集一支可靠而狂热的知识分子和新闻记者部队,这些人煽风点火的评论正在促使冲突不断升级。

这台西班牙大戏的演员们正面临着被政治学家称之为社会困境的局面:冲突的任何一方均可从自利行为中获益,除非另外一方也同样采取自利的行为。但如果双方都坚持自利的原则,那么双方都会失败。

采用次佳方案可能对联合主义者和分离主义者双方都更有利。举例来讲,分离主义者可以放弃单方面独立宣言,以换取进行有关宪法改革的谈判,从而促成西班牙走向联邦制。允许对宪法进行象征性修改的宪法修正案,比如正式宣布加泰罗尼亚为“民族”的宣言或实质性举措,比如财政协定,将满足绝大多数加泰罗尼亚人的独立愿望,并保持西班牙领土的完整性。

问题在于,双方都认为表现出妥协的意愿可能损害他们未来的议价能力。而政治学研究表明情况可能恰恰相反。诺贝尔奖得主埃里诺·奥斯特罗姆(Elinor Ostrom)的研究成果表明我们可以用给予而非索取的反向策略来解决社会困局。如果一方表现出合作行为,其对手可能感受到回报的压力,从而导致一系列合作而非报复,以及信任而非怀疑。

奉行这种理论现在对加泰罗尼亚有利。西班牙政府和加泰罗尼亚分离主义者都必须承认,如果他们以明智而大度的姿态行事,另一方可能以未来的让步作出回应。

鉴于马德里和巴塞罗精英当前完全隔绝的心理状态,实现这一目标并不容易。但他们需要思考他们的行为在近40载成功实行民主制度后,正如何危及数百万西班牙人来之不易的福利。在阳光明媚的西班牙,隧道的尽头应当是光明的未来。

翻译:Xu Binbin

http://prosyn.org/buNNF6q/zh;

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