汽车,炸弹,以及气候变化

发自哥本哈根 —— 在过去十年的大部分时间里,我常常令许多环保分子感到沮丧,因为在遏制全球变暖这个问题上,我指出除了试图说服政府强制或诱使市民降低对燃料(二氧化碳的主要来源)的依赖之外,其实还有许多更好的方法能达到目的。而我认为以减少碳排放为核心的治疗方案所产生的危害比病症本身还要大 —— 或者用经济学的术语来说,就是方案所产生的成本要比它要解决的问题所带来的成本要高昂得多 —— 的观点也让很多人感到困惑。“这怎么可能呢?”他们反问我,“我们可是在讨论世界末日啊。还有什么能比这更差 —— 或代价更大呢?”

他们的话也有点道理。如果咱们面对的真是阿尔 · 戈尔最近所说的那样,“一场超乎想象的灾难,并要立即采取大范围的预防措施来保卫我们所熟知的人类文明”的话,那么我们的确要不惜一切代价来遏制全球变暖。但问题是,威胁真的那么严重吗?

我的答案是否定的。即便是在主流气候科学家所构想的最差的情况下 —— 远超公认的气候模型的预测 —— 也没有戈尔尝试要我们相信的那么差。比如说,即使海平面上升 5 米(这一数据可比联合国政府间气候变迁小组所估计的数据高出 8 倍,比现实可能出现的数据也要高出 2 倍)也不会把全人类给淹没了,甚至连淹没大部分人类都谈不上。

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