Capitalist Meltdown

PARIS – Existe una extraña premonición en la economía mundial. Los periódicos dan cuenta de revisiones en baja en las estimaciones de crecimiento para todos los principales países desarrollados: Estados Unidos, Alemania, Francia, Japón. Ninguno, al parecer, se queda afuera. De hecho, estas estimaciones son aproximadamente medio punto porcentual más bajas que las emitidas el pasado otoño (boreal).

Al mismo tiempo, los diarios hablan en términos sombríos casi exclusivamente sobre los bancos y los mercados financieros, y le dedican poca atención a la economía real, como si la crisis de hoy fuera puramente financiera y vaya a seguir siendo así. Por cierto, algunos expertos también creen que la crisis se puede resolver simplemente refinanciando a los bancos, y que el impacto en la economía real será relativamente limitado.

Esto es claramente lo que piensa el Banco Central Europeo, que está inyectando cientos de miles de millones de euros al sistema bancario para asegurar la liquidez. Pero, a diferencia de la Reserva Federal norteamericana, no ha bajado las tasas de interés clave, que es lo que más le importa a las empresas y a los hogares.

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